Mitt Romney

After leading the polls for most of September, Romney has recently taken a backseat in the polls to Cain. As governor of Massachusetts, he implemented a statewide healthcare system upon which Obamacare was based. In the 2008 Republican race, his religion (he’s Mormon) became a major factor, but aside from Bachmann’s comment that he was not a Christian, that has not been a factor in this campaign. On the campaign trail, Romney has spent most of his time attacking Obama, not his fellow candidates, and has raised more money than other candidates, in spite of not spending any of his personal funds on the campaign. His recent endorsement by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will also likely help his campaign.

Herman Cain

A self-made millionaire as the founder of Godfather’s Pizza, as well as a former chairman of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, Cain is seen as the most economics-savvy of the Republican candidates. Indeed, central to his campaign has been his controversial 9-9-9 plan, which calls for a 9% corporate tax, a 9% income tax, and a 9% sales tax with very few exemptions. According to theTaxPolicyCenter, this plan would increase the taxes of 84% of American households, while reducing taxes on many high-income households, which has led to the plan being called a regressive tax plan, which taxes the poor at a higher rate than the rich. Despite his recent popularity in the polls, Cain trails both Romney and Perry in fundraising and has yet to receive any major political endorsements, so it remains to be seen whether his present popularity will last long enough to get him through the primaries.

Michele Bachmann

This Anoka-St. Cloud representative’s presidential campaign is on the wane after she won the Ames Straw Poll (an informalIowaCaucus-like ) in August. Bachmann, who for a time seemed like the preeminent Republican contender for president, has not so much fallen from grace as faded early on. Her most notable moment in the last month came with a telephone “town hall” meeting hosted with Donald Trump, but even then, Trump’s domineering personality made it clear that this was not a serious attempt to salvage her campaign. While it’s quite possible that Bachmann will be able to pull off a truly amazing comeback, the contrast between her Tea Party rhetoric and Mitt Romney’s more staid reputation may prove fatal to her chances in the end.

Rick Perry

This three-term Texas governor, while not losing ground nearly as fast as Michele Bachmann, has been steadily losing his once-substantial lead in the Republican primary race. The main cause of Perry’s recent fall from the public eye is that, like Bachmann, he is a social conservative in an election season when fiscal conservatism seems key to winning the hearts of recession-addled voters. While Perry continues to brag of the “Texas Miracle,” which, he claims, was the way that his monetary policy managed to help Texas avoid the recession, he lacks the financial focus of candidates such as Herman Cain. Perry may not even be very popular with social conservatives, seeing as he lost the Values Voters Straw Poll in October to Paul, Cain, and Rick Santorum, ultimately tying with Bachmann. While Perry may be saving surprises for later in the race, for now, he seems like a candidate who is slowly but surely fading out.

Barack Obama

Just like the many Republican candidates, incumbent President Barack Obama is beginning to start up his 2012 campaign for president. President Obama’s popularity has undoubtedly seen better days – according toGallup, his current approval rating is only 41%, due to a moderate stance on many issues that has invoked the ire of both conservatives and liberals. Obama has attempted to reinvigorate his popularity recently with a tour of factory towns in theMidwestand a campaign built around rallying a currently lethargic base of supporters, but none of his efforts have yet yielded the same burst of popularity that accompanied the death of Osama bin Laden in May. Unlike the other campaigns, though, Obama has not had to deal with primary season, and thus is only just beginning his campaign, leaving room for any number of surprises, both for and against him, in the coming months.